J.P. Arencibia And The Hidden Improved Approach

                In the dreary start to the Blue Jays 2013 season, one of the few bright spots has been the ridiculous and completely unsustainable power surge by Jonathan Paul Arencibia. Along with the power comes the strike outs and lack of walks, as expected, but yet Arencibia’s approach has been better this season.

                At this point you must be thinking I’m absolutely fucking nuts, and that might be fair. Arencibia has a 35.9% strikeout rate and a 1.7% walk rate, both worse than his already poor career numbers. It is early in the season and even as quickly as strikeout and walk rates normalize, there is reason to believe that J.P. has made some strides at the dish.

                Arencibia will always strike out at a high rate due to a long swing that does have some exploitable holes, but if he can avoid digging himself into holes by swinging at bad pitches there is a chance that he can lessen the his strikeout issues and perhaps hit for a higher average. To show some of the improvements I’ve seen in his approach I’m going to link to the tables below.

This strikezone map shows JP’s swing rate over his career. The first thing I want to focus on is the number of pitches down and away that he swings at.

Career Swing Percentages For J.P. Arencibia

Between 2011 and 2012 In that quartet of zones, JP swung at 473 of 946 pitches, exactly 50%. So far in 2013, JP has swung at only 48 of 129 pitches down and away, or 37.2%. It is a small sample size, but that is a fairly sizeable adjustment. When it comes to just breaking pitches, he is swinging at 39.5% of the time, compared to 44.2% in 2011 and 2012.

J.P. Arencibia Swing Percentages In Strike Zone

While all of this is just a small sample, overall his swing rates within the strike zone seem to be with pitches in better locations, but time will tell if this approach change keeps up. The above chart shows his swing rate in the zone for 2013 and for his career. 2013 is on the left, while his career rates are on the right. One of the big reason’s for Edwin Encarnacion’s strides last season was the fact that he was more selective within the strike zone, and it appears so far that Arencibia has been doing something similar so far, though his approach still leaves a lot to be desired.

Breaking down Morrow's struggles with runners on base.

 With Brandon Morrow's press conference coming up in just about half an hour to announce a brand new 3 year 20 million dollar extension that will buy out his last 2 arbitration years and his first year of free agency. its become a hot topic about Brandon Morrow's productivity and what his productivity should be considering his peripheral numbers.

Chris Cwik over at fangraphs posted a tremendous article on Brandon Morrow and his struggles with runners on base. Click Here

In his article he points out how Brandon Morrow's walk and strikeout rates remain fairly constant with and without runners on base.  Yet Morrow gives up more flyballs when runners are on base, which should lead to a lower BABIP, but has actually in fact raised his BABIP by nearly 8%!

I am willing to offer up a solution the the unlucky/poor performance debate.

I watched all of Brandon Morrow's starts last season. he tends to give up alot more hard contact with men on base. The ground balls are sharp, the flyballs are deep to the wall and everything results in hard contact. He also falls behind more often with runners on base and he’ll follow up those outside pitches with ones right down the middle because of his being down 3-1 and such in the count. His stuff is just so good that sometimes he gets away with pitching in the heart of the plate resulting in K’s.

At this point, Brandon Morrow is still equal parts thrower and pitcher, and he'll need to keep improving to be worth his deal.  More likely than not though, Morrow for a potential 4 years and 30 million or 3 years at 21 million will be a steal.

Pro's, Con's and Prince Fielder

 Following a question by @TDotSportsBlogr, I'll be looking at the Price Fielder quandry.

Why should they sign Prince Fielder? 

Well, Fielder adds an impact middle of the order bat who just produces. Since 2007, Fielder has posted a .399 wOBA, which ranks 7th in baseball behind only Pujols, Cabrera, Votto, Holliday, Braun and Rodriguez. As for arguing that he plays in a beneficial park (Miller Park is one of the best hitters stadiums in baseball), wOBA already adjusts for that.  Fielder would give Jose Bautista some protection in the lineup and make it even more dangerous top to bottom, as anyone who has hit 200 HR’s over the last 5 seasons would. Another fact to note is that he's consistant, you know what your getting (until he breaks down).

Why shouldn’t they sign Prince Fielder?

Fielder is listed at 5 feet 11 inches and (a generous) 268 pounds.  While a better athlete then at first glance, his body type tends to wear down and not gradually either.  Fielder is looking for a 6+ year contract worth around 24 million a season.  If he wears down in year 4 of the deal, how much will it hamstring the team considerably (Note Vernon Wells, Alex Rios contracts).  There is a great chance that he’ll be worth the entire length of the deal by year 4 (using WAR $ as a base), but even then, with the money on the books it will be an issue, and that isn’t good for a team that is looking to be a year in year out contender. 

For the second part of why not, lets look at position.  Fielder plays 1B (not very well I might add) which not only adds stress on the body, but costs the team due to the poor defensive play, to the tune of -27 Runs since 2007 (by UZR).  The Blue Jays play in the AL, which means they could just slot him in at DH, which is the smart move (assuming he can handle thinking about every AB all game)., but with any smart move there is the bad.  There are conflicting reports on whether Fielder is willing to DH for an AL team.

What should the Jays do?


 I say go after him. Give him 6 or 7 year money over the 5 years the Jays are willing to give. At that rate, he wont be a burden in the future should he wear down and proceed into a sharp decline. Maybe you overpay a little per season but I'd would rather overpay for a few seasons then pay him for years after his body breaks down and he's a shell of his former self.