Melky Used PED`s? So What?

            First things first, contrary to what the title suggests, I am not a proponent of Performance Enhancing Drug use.  I think it is unethical and one of the lowest things you can do WITHIN the game of baseball.  Also, if you asked me to pick a Cabrera I’d want on my team, I’d pick Melky over Miggy.  Miggy drank and drove putting innocent people at risk and has been accused of domestic battery. Despite all of Melky’s flaws , I love the acquisition and I don’t worry much about the drop off in production post-PED use.

           

Looking at Melky Cabrera’s skill set that he doesn't rely on power, his ISO the last 2 years has been higher (.164 and .170) but even before his terrible season with the Braves he posted a .142 ISO.   Some of the Melk Mans detractors point out that he has had inflated batting averages on balls in play over the last 2 seasons (.352).  Melky hits lots of ground balls, nearly 50% for his career.  That factor combined with the turf at Rogers Center should/could lead to a higher than normal BABIP.

           

One of Melky’s strengths is his plate discipline, he has decent on base skills (7.3% career walk rate), and doesn't strike out a tonne (12.1%) and those rates have been fairly consistent year to year.  His whiff rate is very low (5.5%) despite a slightly higher than average out of zone swing rate, but he makes great contact on pitches out of the zone, and has good results compared to normal, on pitches out of the zone. 

           

All said and done, Melky doesn't have to be great to live up to his contract, he basically just has to go out there and be a league average LF.  If he’s more than that, and I believe he will be, it’s a great sign.  If all he is, is his 2009 season, he’ll still be a worth his contract.  His skill set doesn't lend itself to being a product of his PED use, but we don’t truly know the impact of PED’s really. That is one of the reasons I am looking at the glass of Melk half full. I’ll show myself out now.

Batted Ball FIP Database

As I have written about at Runs Batted Out and frequently posted about on twitter, I have put in many many hours and have updated bbFIP databases back to the 2003 season. I have never truly publicly posted them, not in an attempt to hide knowledge, just never getting around to it.  So here it is, all my time and effort in this post. There are two different spreadsheets, one for American League and one for National League.  I will continue my work on updating and improving the information within.  The plan for the baseball off-season is to work on career statistics for each pitcher and providing career bbFIP numbers.  I have more plans as well such as bbFIP split as reliever and as a starter.  I'm always looking for new ways to break down the numbers, so feel free to drop me a line with any idea's you may have. You can email me here or tweet at me on the twitter @SMcEwen_Eh

For those who aren't aware of what bbFIP is exactly, (click) here is the link to my post explaining it.

Without further ado, I give you bbFIP 2003-2011

American League (click)

National League (click)

Keep posted as I will star posting updates every 5 days plus full data for 2012 after the season ends.

Enjoy!

Quick Thoughts: J.A. Happ Returns To The Rotation

Early Saturday morning the Blue Jays announced that Brett Cecil had been optioned to AAA and that J.A. Happ had moved into the rotation in Cecil’s place.  From 2007, when Happ debuted, until the 10 player trade that landed him in Toronto Happ had started 90 games for the Astros and Phillies.

The last 2 seasons Happ has put up poor ERA’s in Houston partially due to a hitters park and  poor defense.  As a regular in 2009 and 2010, Happ posted ERA’s of 2.93 and 3.40 while playing in front of a pretty good defensive team in Philadelphia.  In those 2 seasons Happ posted BABIP’s of .266 and .262 with batted ball rates that lined up with his low BABIP (~18% LD rate, 40% GB rate, and 12% IFFB rate).  In these 2 seasons he posted bbFIP (click here for primer) of 4.17 in 2009 and 3.53 in 2010.

 In 2011 his GB rate dropped and his LD rate spiked resulting in an BABIP of .297, which can’t be blamed on defense alone as his 4.68 bbFIP corroborates.  Flash forward to 2012 and Happ is posting the highest GB rate of his career at nearly 47% and a low 17% LD rate, yet his BABIP is over 300 at .313. It isn’t exactly a secret that the Astros are terrible this season and have the second worst DRS, or Defensive Runs Saved, of any team in the majors. His bbFIP this season of 3.67 is more in line with what you would expect considering his early years in Philadelphia.

In the end Cecil showed flashes of success and other times he was hit hard.  It was just time for the Blue Jays to see what they have in Happ. The Blue Jays have been a pretty good defensive team during the season (65 DRS, so it will be interesting to see if Happ’s numbers improve. In any case, Happ should be more consistent the enigmatic, light throwing Cecil.

Is Bautista's Arm an Asset in RF? No Really

As most anyone that follows the Blue Jays knows, Jose Bautista has a rocket arm in RF, but how much of an asset is his arm really. Using BIS (Baseball Info Solutions) data, we see that Jose Bautista had the extra base attempted 61% of the time, ranking 20^th among Right Fielders in 2011 with at least 150 outs made. While he posted the 2^nd highest kill % among Right Fielders, at 17%, opponents advanced on 50.5% of opportunities ranking 14^th out of 24 qualifying Right Fielders.

In itself, the high Kill% and advance rates aren't awful, ranking 2^nd and 14^th respectively, but Jose Bautista's ranks on shallow (12th), medium (16th) and deep (24^th) aren't very good. His rating (-8) on basic balls in play ranked 23^rd out of all Right Fielders. Looking at the RF's whose arms didn't limit runners as much as Bautista, all were at least 4 runs better on basic balls in play then Bautista and were (minus Cruz and Ichiro) among the best at getting to deep balls, which can affect an advance % due to being better balls to run on. 

In conclusion, the evidence shows that Jose Bautista isn't really an asset in RF defensively, and a defensive move to 1B or DH should be in the cards soon.

Blue Jays Prospects Who Could Be In The Bigs 2012: Part 1/3 Infielders

With spring training now in full swing, the “rosterbators” are out in full force predicting 25 man rosters for the upcoming season.  This is not is not an article about my own personal rosterbation, but actually one about what prospects could see the big leagues this year.

Lets start this off this three part series with the infield, where the Jays have top notch Catching prospect Travis d’Arnaud, wizard defender Adeiny Hechavarria and not much else in terms of near impact talent.

Travis d’Arnaud

Travis d’Arnaud could be a September call-up this season, or maybe earlier if J.P. Arencibia goes down to injury, as there is no chance that Anthopolous would entrust every day at bats to Jeff Mathis. Possessing solid defensive and receiving skills, he should in time become a plus defender.  d’Arnaud draws rave reviews for his ability to handle a pitching staff to go along with a strong arm and athletic body.  At the plate d’Arnaud has good pop for a catcher projecting as a 20+ homerun hitter down the line with solid on base skills, who will hit for solid average and has a good approach using all fields.

Adeiny Hechavarria

The young Cuban who will be 23 on April 15th is one of the best defensive players in the minors and already plays defense that is MLB ready.  Hechavarria’s questions lie with the bat though.  Over 775 AA plate appearances Adeiny has a triple slash of .248/.286/.362. “Hech” posted fantastic numbers in AAA, at hitter friendly Las Vegas though, in 116 PA.  His triple slash of .389/.431/.537 was off the charts and a complete aberration from the past. While those numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt, scouts of always liked his swing and there is a little potential to hit.  Another problem for Hech at the plate is right handers. He hit .305 off LHP in AA last year,, and only .207 of RHP.  Hechavarria is in line for a September call-up, but likely wont hit much at all. His glove will get him to the big leagues, but his bat will tell if he can play every day or is a bench piece down the line.

Mike McDade

First Basemen Mike McDade has mammoth power, but around that ability there isn’t any tool that really jumps out at all. McDade slugged .457 last season and it wasn’t a product of his favourable home park as he hit 9 of his 16 home runs on the road.  Despite hitting .281 as a switch hitter last season, questions remain about his ability to hit. McDade has struck out over 100 times in every full season since turning pro and not walking much (133 time in 1915 AB’s).  The .281 average he posted last season was his best as a pro though his 5.3% walk rate was below his minor league rate of 6.7% heading into last season.  McDade is not a great defender, but he can hold his own at the position despite his 6’1 260 lb frame. McDade could see time as a September call-up or could end up spending the full season in AAA splitting time with David Cooper at 1B/DH.  Cooper is the higher thought of prospect though.

David Cooper

Cooper had a couple of small cups of coffee last season, where despite not putting up gaudy numbers he didn’t look last. His advanced plate approach led to .678 OPS in 81 big league plate appearances.  While his .211 batting average was nothing to write home about, he managed to slug .394 despite the low batting average which slotted him in between Adam Lind and Edwin Encarnacion on the Blue Jays leader board.  Cooper doesn’t post typical 1B power numbers but does use the whole field and has a knack for hitting the balls into the gaps in right and left center leading to doubles galore (Cooper recorded 58 doubles and 11 homeruns in 538 At Bats. Coopers supreme approach at the plate had him strike out only 57 times last season while walking 74 times (7BB/14K with the Jays). He’s not a very good defender at first base, but does have the athleticism to one day become and average at least defender. He could spend the full season in the big leagues as Adam Lind’s back up or could be a September call-up.  Should Lind be traded or injured you can bet Cooper will get some serious AB’s with the Jays whether at DH or 1B.

Dustin McGowan's future with the Blue Jays

One of the highlights of the 2011 season occurred on September 6th when Dustin McGowan, 1155 days removed from his last major league appearance, appeared in relief versus the Boston Red Sox.  McGowan pitched 4 innings of relief, while McGowan wasn’t his old self just getting back to the majors was a huge accomplishment.

After his first appearance McGowan made 4 starts with mixed results, with his September 21st start vs. the Angels standing out.   He pitched 5 innings of 5 hit, 2 run ball.  Striking out 8 and walking none and giving up 6 ground balls 4 fly balls and 2 linedrives.  While in other games he struggled greatly with commend and gave up hard contact at an alarming rate.
McGowans stuff still looked good out there, though inconsistent.  The curve flattened out more often then it used to, and his command of his pitches wasn’t as sharp. 

I wont get into predictive stats in this case because really with such a small sample size and the context of the situation, they are just not applicable at all.

2007 PitchFx Data Is the top chart, 2011 the bottom.

As the data shows his fastball clocked in 2.5 MPH slower then in '07. His Slider, curve and changeup all lost velocity, but that was expected with 3 year layoff.  While his pitches recorded similar movement at the finish of the pitch, the command of his pitches was not nearly as consistent and pitches were breaking earlier then in previous seasons.  He threw the lowest % of pitches in the strike zone in his career and the number of whiffs he generated drop from 10.7% in 2007 to 8.5% in 2011.  McGowan did flash the stuff though that made him the Jays top prospect in 2003 and 2006.



McGowan's future will likely be decided in Spring Training this year.  If he can stay healthy there is a good chance that he can jump in and contribute as the #5 starter in the Blue Jays rotation. Its unlikely he fits in with the bullpen with his previous shoulder issues and lack of a routine for dealing with his shoulder.  Should McGowan make the team Farrell has projected an innings cap of around 140-150 innings for McGowan.  With more workouts, throwing more regularly and just resuming normal baseball activities full time it wouldn't be surprising to see McGowan gain a tick or two on his pitches.



McGowan's long term future with the Blue Jays is uncertain, but should he remain healthy and regain a bit more of his previous ability, there is no reason to believe he can't be a valuable contributor in the rotation for at least a few years.  If not, he'll likely be cut as he can't be sent to AAA without being put on waivers.

Why this year's bullpen (re)acquisitions are different.

Today the Jays signed former Reds closer Francisco Cordero to a one year deal.  There are those who are cynical about the deal and overall are comparing this years bullpen to last years.  This years acquisitions have very subtle differences, and ones that show either a changed philosophy from AA (stocking draft picks to contending) or that AA has just improved his judgement.  Either way, its a good deal.  Lets look at the key acquisitions from this and last year.

2011: Jon Rauch, Octavio Dotel, Frank Francisco
2012: Sergio Santos, Francisco Cordero, Jason Frasor, Darren Oliver

Lets look at the biggest 2011 bust Jon Rauch's 3 years prior to signing.


Jon Rauch

2008 - Washington/Arizona
2009 - Washington/Minnesota
2010 - Minnesota

Looking at the teams he played for, you see Washington and Minnesota where he pitched 176 out of 199 1/3 innings over the 3 seasons. Washington and Minnesota are both pitchers parks, posting Park Factors of 98 overall for Minnesota (65 for Homeruns) and 99 overall for Washington (96 for Homeruns). 

NOTE: 100 rating means an average major league park with no difference for pitchers/hitters.

ERA/FIP/xFIP:
2008 - 4.14/3.96/3.71
2009 - 3.60/3.88/4.57
2010 - 3.12/2.94/3.98

As you can see, in 2008 he posted his worst season due to his trade to hitter friendly Arizona. Prior to moving to Arizona his ERA/FIP/xFIP was 2.98/3.09/3.44.  Which shows us alot more consistancy in the data for those 3 seasons.

Rauch has never been a ground ball pitcher and has always had extreme flyball tendencies (2008 - 45.9%, 2009 - 43.6% and 2010 - 44.3%).  Despite these high flyball rates, he managed to keep his HR/FB quite low in Washington and Minnesota (2008 WAS - 8.1%, 2009 - 6.3%, 2010 - 3.7%). 


NOTE: Average HR/FB is usually around 10% (9.7% in 2011)

As all Jays fans know, Rauch was plagued by the longball last season posting HR/FB rate of 12.9% well above his rates in 2008-2010.

Rauch was never a fit in the Rogers Center for this main fact (Rogers Center has a 135 Homerun Park Factor) . 

While Dotel and Francisco had their struggles at times, overall they pitched quite well and both had plenty of experience in pitchers parks (Dotel has had every park as a home park pretty much and Francisco was used to playing in Arlington).

If we look at the 2012 acquisitions we can see a huge pattern forming.  Anthopolous is targeting pitchers who are proven (Santos maybe not quite "proven" yet) performers in hitter friendly ballparks.

Cordero has posted great seasons in Cincy consistantly.  His ever improving GB rate is proof that he's learned to pitch in these situation and thrive, trading strikeouts for soft contact. 

Darren Oliver has played in many places, but definitely knows how to pitch in small parks as he posted incredible seasons in Texas. Another ground ball pitcher Oliver had a weird season last year, but his career track record shows he's a ground ball pitcher who enduces a tonne of pop ups.

Jason Frasor knows the Rogers Center, I don't think I need to explain that one.  The Jays all time leader in appearances.

And lastly, Sergio Santos.  Santos played in a great hitters park in Chicago. While he had a ridiculous 2010 in terms of HR/FB, it came back to earth in 2011 and he showed that he can be dominant in a hitters park. His HR/FB being in line with league averages, and even a bit higher bodes well for his move to Toronto where in 2010 both parks posted identical HR Park Factors of 135.

To say that these bullpen moves are of a different breed from last year would be an understatement.  Something has changed with AA's targeting of relief pitchers, and by god, his moves look even greater when you really get down to the nitty gritty of the advanced numbers.  Here is to a greatly improved bullpen in 2012!